Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Forest Fires in Poland and Consequences for Fire Protection Systems: Seeking a Balance between Efficiency and Costs

Aleksandra Kolanek (), Mariusz Szymanowski and Michał Małysz
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Aleksandra Kolanek: Department of Geoinformatics and Cartography, Institute of Geography and Regional Development, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Environmental Management, University of Wrocław, pl. Uniwersytecki 1, 50-137 Wrocław, Poland
Mariusz Szymanowski: Department of Geoinformatics and Cartography, Institute of Geography and Regional Development, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Environmental Management, University of Wrocław, pl. Uniwersytecki 1, 50-137 Wrocław, Poland
Michał Małysz: Chair of Urban Planning and Spatial Management, Faculty of Architecture, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, ul. Bolesława Prusa 53/55, 50-317 Wrocław, Poland

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 24, 1-19

Abstract: An important issue from the forest fire protection system perspective is forecasting fires and maintaining a high readiness of firefighting units at a low cost. In Poland, the level of fire protection is defined by the degree of forest fire risk, based on forecasts made for 1 March to 30 September, i.e., the risk period (the so-called fire season). In this paper, based on classical statistical and spatial analysis, we positively verify the research hypothesis that the fire season in Poland changes in terms of start and end dates depending on the region. We therefore propose a modification to the forecasting period, adapted to local conditions and calculated annually on the basis of the previous period. Then, using network analysis, we negatively verify the hypothesis that the size of the burned area is related to the distance from fire brigades, which proves that the reasons for such a differentiation in the number of fires should be sought elsewhere than in the system used for allocating fire units. On the basis of cluster analysis, attention is drawn to areas where large fires break out more often.

Keywords: spatio-temporal analysis; wildfires; forest fires; seasonality; fire protection; Poland; sustainability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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