A Worrying Future for River Flows in the Brazilian Cerrado Provoked by Land Use and Climate Changes

Yuri Botelho Salmona (), Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli Matricardi (), David Lewis Skole, João Flávio Andrade Silva, Osmar de Araújo Coelho Filho, Marcos Antonio Pedlowski, James Matos Sampaio, Leidi Cahola Ramírez Castrillón, Reuber Albuquerque Brandão, Andréa Leme da Silva and Saulo Aires de Souza
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Yuri Botelho Salmona: Graduate Program in Forest Sciences, University of Brasilia, Brasília 70900-910, DF, Brazil
Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli Matricardi: Graduate Program in Forest Sciences, University of Brasilia, Brasília 70900-910, DF, Brazil
David Lewis Skole: Global Observatory for Ecosystem Services, Department of Forestry, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824-6402, USA
João Flávio Andrade Silva: Interinstitutional Graduate Program in Statistics UFSCar-USP (PIPGEs), Universidade Federal de São Carlos, Rodovia Washington Luís, km 235—SP-310, São Carlos 13565-905, SP, Brazil
Osmar de Araújo Coelho Filho: Graduate Program in Environmental Technologies and Hydric Resources, University of Brasilia, Brasília 70900-910, DF, Brazil
Marcos Antonio Pedlowski: Laboratório de Estudos do Espaço Antrópico (LEEA), Centro de Ciências do Homem (CCH), Universidade Estadual do Norte Fluminense Darcy Ribeiro (UENF), Campos dos Goytacazes 28013-602, RJ, Brazil
James Matos Sampaio: Department of Statistic, University of Brasília, Campus Darcy Ribeiro, Brasília 70900-910, DF, Brazil
Leidi Cahola Ramírez Castrillón: Graduate Program in Environmental Technologies and Hydric Resources, University of Brasilia, Brasília 70900-910, DF, Brazil
Reuber Albuquerque Brandão: Graduate Program in Forest Sciences, University of Brasilia, Brasília 70900-910, DF, Brazil
Andréa Leme da Silva: Graduate Program in Environment and Rural Development, University of Brasília, Brasília 73345-010, DF, Brazil
Saulo Aires de Souza: Agência Nacional de Águas—ANA, Brasília 70610-200, DF, Brazil

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 5, 1-24

Abstract: In this study, we assessed the impacts of land use and climate changes on the river flows of 81 watersheds within the Cerrado biome, Brazil, based on a comprehensive analysis of field and secondary data acquired between 1985 and 2018. Complementarily, we projected a future deforestation and climate scenario up to 2050 and predicted their impacts on surface water in the study area. We observed that direct impacts by large-scale deforestation oriented to the production of irrigated agricultural commodities have more significantly impacted river flows than climate changes. We estimated an average decrease of 8.7% and 6.7% in the streamflow due to deforestation and climate changes, respectively. Most of the observed changes (56.7%) were due to land use and land cover changes and occurred in recent decades. Climate and land use and land cover changes combined were responsible for a total surface water reduction of −19,718 m³/s within the Cerrado watersheds. By assuming the current deforestation rates, we predicted a total water reduction of 23,653 m³/s by 2050, equivalent to a decrease of 33.9% of the river flows in the study region. It will cause severe streamflow discontinuity in many rivers and strongly affect agricultural, electric power production, biodiversity, and water supply, especially during dry seasons in that region.

Keywords: Cerrado; streamflow; climate changes; land use changes; deforestation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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