Probability-Based City-Scale Risk Assessment of Passengers Trapped in Elevators under Earthquakes

Donglian Gu, Yixing Wang, Xinzheng Lu and Zhen Xu ()
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Donglian Gu: Research Institute of Urbanization and Urban Safety, School of Civil and Resource Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
Yixing Wang: Institute of Engineering Mechanics, China Earthquake Administration, Harbin 150000, China
Xinzheng Lu: Key Laboratory of Civil Engineering Safety and Durability of China Education Ministry, Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Zhen Xu: Research Institute of Urbanization and Urban Safety, School of Civil and Resource Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 6, 1-20

Abstract: An accurate prediction of the number of passengers trapped in elevators under earthquakes in urban areas is essential for promoting earthquake emergencies. A probability-based city-scale method for assessing the earthquake-induced risk of passenger entrapment in elevators was proposed, in which city-scale time history analysis was performed to simulate the seismic response of building clusters, and the Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to consider the uncertainty of multiple factors, including the mechanical properties of buildings and elevators, the elevator story position, and the spatiotemporal nature of elevator traffics. A case study of the Tsinghua University campus was performed to demonstrate the practicability of the method. The results show that the number of trapped passengers when an earthquake occurs during the off-peak hours of elevator traffic is approximately a quarter of that when the earthquake occurs at 8:00. The maximum number of trapped passengers under the maximum considered earthquake reaches 195, approximately five times that under the design basis earthquake. This study fills a gap in the research on city-scale earthquake-induced passenger entrapment risk. The proposed method can be used to perform both scenario- and intensity-based assessments, thereby having the potential to facilitate virtual rescuer drills and earthquake emergency plans.

Keywords: city-scale building performance assessment; human safety; elevator; earthquake; Monte Carlo (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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