Climate and Land-Use Change Impacts on Flood Hazards in the Mono River Catchment of Benin and Togo

Nina Rholan Houngue (), Adrian Delos Santos Almoradie, Sophie Thiam, Kossi Komi, Julien G. Adounkpè, Komi Begedou and Mariele Evers
Additional contact information
Nina Rholan Houngue: Department of Geography, University of Bonn, 53115 Bonn, Germany
Adrian Delos Santos Almoradie: Department of Geography, University of Bonn, 53115 Bonn, Germany
Sophie Thiam: Center for Development Research (ZEF), Zentrum für Entwicklungsforschung, Genscherallee 3, 53113 Bonn, Germany
Kossi Komi: Laboratory of Research on Spaces, Exchanges and Human Security, Department of Geography, University of Lomé, Lomé 01BP1515, Togo
Julien G. Adounkpè: Laboratory of Applied Ecology, Faculty of Agronomic Sciences, University of Abomey-Calavi, Abomey-Calavi P.O. Box 526, Benin
Komi Begedou: West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), Université de Lomé, Lomé 01BP1515, Togo
Mariele Evers: Department of Geography, University of Bonn, 53115 Bonn, Germany

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 7, 1-31

Abstract: Flooding is prominent in West Africa, and is expected to be exacerbated, due to global climate and land-use changes. This study assessed the impacts of future climate and land-use changes on flood hazards in the Mono river catchment area of Benin and Togo. Climate scenarios from the representative concentration pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, and land-use projection at the horizon of 2070 were used for runoff simulation at the Athiémé outlet, and flood mapping in the lower Mono river basin. The planned Adjarala dam was also simulated, to evaluate its potential impact. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact of the projected changes on runoff, while the flood-water extent was simulated using the two-dimensional TELEMAC-2D model. TELEMAC-2D was validated with satellite observation and in a participatory way with local stakeholders. SWAT showed good performance during the calibration (KGE = 0.83) and validation (KGE = 0.68) steps. Results show an increase in the magnitude of flood extremes under future climate- and land-use-change scenarios. Events of 10-year return periods during 1987–2010 are expected to become 2-year return-period events under the climate- and land-use-change scenarios considered. The planned Adjarala dam showed potentials for extreme-peak and flood-extent reduction. However, flow-duration curves revealed that the discharge of the river during low-flow periods may also be reduced if the Adjarala dam is built. Adaptation measures as well as sustainable land-use and dam-management options should be identified, to alleviate the impacts of the projected changes.

Keywords: flood hazard; Mono river catchment; climate change; land-use change; SWAT; TELEMAC-2D (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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