Groundwater Modeling to Assess Climate Change Impacts and Sustainability in the Tana Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

Fahad Khan Khadim, Zoi Dokou, Rehenuma Lazin, Amvrossios C. Bagtzoglou and Emmanouil Anagnostou ()
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Fahad Khan Khadim: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
Zoi Dokou: Department of Civil Engineering, California State University, Sacramento, CA 95819, USA
Rehenuma Lazin: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
Amvrossios C. Bagtzoglou: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA
Emmanouil Anagnostou: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA

Sustainability, 2023, vol. 15, issue 7, 1-23

Abstract: Climate change effects on long-term groundwater (GW) resource developments in the Tana Basin, Ethiopia, are a growing concern. Efforts to provide estimates under various climatic uncertainties are lacking in the region. To address this need, we deployed a fine-resolution (500 m) GW model using MODFLOW-NWT for the Tana Basin, Upper the Blue Nile region. The GW model was calibrated based on 98 historical instantaneous well-level measurements (RMSE = 16.36 m, 1.6% of range), and 38 years of monthly lake level data (RMSE = 0.2 m, 6.7% of range). We used the model to simulate long-term climate change impacts by considering two representative concentration pathways, (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, from the two extreme global circulation models (MIROC5 for wetter conditions and CSIRO-Mk3 for drier conditions) available in the region. While the MIROC5 simulated GW table (GWT) was found to be stable, the CSIRO-Mk3 simulated GWT exhibited large fluctuations within +2 m to −4 m by 2100 due to climate change. More critical impacts were predicted for the lake, where total lake releases from the baseline scenario were foreseen to be changed by +50% (MIROC5) or −22% (CSIRO-Mk3) by the end of 2100.

Keywords: groundwater model; sustainability; MODFLOW-NWT; Upper Blue (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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