Enhancing Transparency of Climate Efforts: MITICA’s Integrated Approach to Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

Juan Luis Martín-Ortega (), Javier Chornet, Ioannis Sebos, Sander Akkermans and María José López Blanco
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Juan Luis Martín-Ortega: Gauss International Consulting, 28801 Alcalá de Henares, Madrid, Spain
Javier Chornet: Gauss International Consulting, 28801 Alcalá de Henares, Madrid, Spain
Ioannis Sebos: School of Chemical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Zografou Campus, 15780 Athens, Greece
Sander Akkermans: Gauss International Consulting, 28801 Alcalá de Henares, Madrid, Spain
María José López Blanco: Gauss International Consulting, 28801 Alcalá de Henares, Madrid, Spain

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 10, 1-35

Abstract: Under the Paris Agreement, countries must articulate their most ambitious mitigation targets in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years and regularly submit interconnected information on greenhouse gas (GHG) aspects, including national GHG inventories, NDC progress tracking, mitigation policies and measures (PAMs), and GHG projections in various mitigation scenarios. Research highlights significant gaps in the definition of mitigation targets and the reporting on GHG-related elements, such as inconsistencies between national GHG inventories, projections, and mitigation targets, a disconnect between PAMs and mitigation scenarios, as well as varied methodological approaches across sectors. To address these challenges, the Mitigation-Inventory Tool for Integrated Climate Action (MITICA) provides a methodological framework that links national GHG inventories, PAMs and GHG projections, applying a hybrid decomposition approach that integrates machine learning regression techniques with classical forecasting methods for developing GHG emission projections. MITICA enables mitigation scenario generation until 2050, incorporating over 60 PAMs across Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sectors. It is the first modelling approach that ensures consistency between reporting elements, aligning NDC progress tracking and target setting with IPCC best practices while linking climate change with sustainable economic development. MITICA’s results include projections that align with observed trends, validated through cross-validation against test data, and employ robust methods for evaluating PAMs, thereby establishing its reliability.

Keywords: Paris Agreement; climate change mitigation; sustainable development; National Determined Contributions; low carbon strategies; machine learning regression; mitigation scenarios; carbon modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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