Estimating the Energy Demand and Carbon Emission Reduction Potential of Singapore’s Future Road Transport Sector

Shiddalingeshwar Channabasappa Devihosur, Anurag Chidire, Tobias Massier () and Thomas Hamacher
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Shiddalingeshwar Channabasappa Devihosur: School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, 80333 Munich, Germany
Anurag Chidire: School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, 80333 Munich, Germany
Tobias Massier: TUM CREATE Ltd., 1 CREATE Way, #10-02 CREATE Tower, Singapore 138602, Singapore
Thomas Hamacher: School of Engineering and Design, Technical University of Munich, 80333 Munich, Germany

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 11, 1-16

Abstract: About 20% of the world’s CO 2 emissions originate from transport. Many countries are committed to decarbonizing their transport sector. Singapore pledged to electrify a whole host of its land transportation fleet, which includes private cars, public buses, ride-hail vehicles, and motorcycles. This paper proposes a simple empirical framework to estimate the future energy demand after 100% electrification has been realized for nine selected road transport vehicle sub-classes and to calculate the carbon emission reduction potential based on various scenarios. The present energy demand for each vehicle sub-class is first calculated based on parameters like petrol and diesel consumption, heat value and density of petrol and diesel, population of vehicle type, and average mileage per vehicle sub-class. Several scenarios are presented, and an analysis is carried out to derive a range of emission factors which are used to estimate the carbon emission reduction potential. Relative to the present day, the future energy demand estimates reveal an overall reduction of 73.60%. Full electrification and a “clean” power generation mix could lead to an emission reduction as high as 93.64% across all vehicles sub-classes, with private cars having the highest reduction potential.

Keywords: energy demand; road transportation; carbon emissions; decarbonization; Singapore (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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