Drought Characteristics and Causes during Winter Wheat Growth Stages in North China

Chuanyang Xu, Zimeng Xu, Yao Li, Yuanyuan Luo (), Kai Wang, Linghui Guo and Chengyuan Hao
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Chuanyang Xu: School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China
Zimeng Xu: School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China
Yao Li: School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China
Yuanyuan Luo: School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China
Kai Wang: School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China
Linghui Guo: School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China
Chengyuan Hao: School of Surveying and Land Information Engineering, Henan Polytechnic University, Jiaozuo 454000, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 14, 1-19

Abstract: Understanding potential drought characteristics under climate change is essential for reducing vulnerability and establishing adaptation strategies, especially in North China, a major grain production area. In this study, the key growth period of winter wheat was taken as the entry point. We comprehensively utilized data from meteorological stations and circulation factors and employed methods such as the modified Mann–Kendall test, run theory, wavelet analysis, and cluster analysis. We quantitatively assessed the drought conditions during the winter wheat growth stages using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index at a 1-month timescale (SPEI-1). We analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of drought and explored the inherent correlation between drought and atmospheric circulation factors. Results indicate that the SPEI-1 index increased significantly during the entire growth period, the overwintering-jointing stage, and the heading-maturity stage at rates of 0.0058, 0.0044, and 0.0140 per year, respectively, showing a wetting trend. Higher drought frequency values were observed in northern Shanxi, northern Hebei, western Henan, and southern Shandong during the entire growth period, with the drought frequency of the overwintering-jointing stage approximately twice that of the emergence-tillering and heading-maturity stages. Furthermore, drought frequency values in southern Hebei and southern Henan decreased from high to low frequency during the heading-maturity stage compared to the overwintering-jointing period. The SPEI-1 is predominantly influenced by the Arctic Oscillation (AO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), varying by growth stages.

Keywords: drought event characteristics; influencing factors; North China region; winter wheat growing period (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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