Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Variation in Drought in the Sichuan Basin from 1963 to 2022

Zongying Yang, Bo Zhang (), Jie Chen, Yule Hou, Yan Wu and Hong Xie
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Zongying Yang: College of Resources and Environment, Aba Teachers College, Wenchuan 623002, China
Bo Zhang: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Jie Chen: College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Yule Hou: College of Resources and Environment, Aba Teachers College, Wenchuan 623002, China
Yan Wu: College of Resources and Environment, Aba Teachers College, Wenchuan 623002, China
Hong Xie: College of Resources and Environment, Aba Teachers College, Wenchuan 623002, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 19, 1-23

Abstract: The study of regional drought characteristics is vital for identifying drought patterns and offering scientifically informed guidance for drought warnings. This research focuses on the Sichuan Basin, where the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was calculated across various time scales using meteorological data from 1963 to 2022. Wavelet analysis was applied to examine the periodic fluctuations of the SPEI across different time scales. Drought events were identified using run-length theory and spatially visualized with ArcGIS 10.7 interpolation techniques to elucidate the temporal and spatial dynamics of drought occurrences. The findings are as follows: (1) Over nearly 60 years, the SPEI in the Sichuan Basin fluctuated between −1.5 and 1, with an insignificant annual downward trend but a significant downward trend in autumn ( p < 0.05). (2) The SPEI displayed a primary cycle of 6 years in spring, autumn, and winter, while the summer cycle matched the annual SPEI cycle of 8 years. (3) Drought events were more frequent in the eastern part of the basin compared to the west. The area with high drought frequency shifted counterclockwise from east to north, northwest, west, and south with the changing seasons. (4) Drought duration was longer in the western and northern regions of the basin than in the east. Severe drought events were mainly concentrated in the Chengdu Plain and the Central Sichuan Hilly Region, although the drought intensity index was lowest in the Chengdu Plain and Chongqing in eastern Sichuan. The peak values of drought showed an insignificant decreasing trend, indicating a potential expansion in the extreme impacts of drought disasters in the study area.

Keywords: drought; Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; Sichuan Basin; wavelet analysis; run-length theory (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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