Investigation of Trip Decisions for an Earthquake: A Case Study in Elazığ, Türkiye

Ayşe Polat () and Hüseyin Onur Tezcan
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Ayşe Polat: Transportation Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul 34469, Türkiye
Hüseyin Onur Tezcan: Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul 34469, Türkiye

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 20, 1-20

Abstract: Following an earthquake, abnormal travel demand causes traffic congestion and poses significant problems for relief efforts. Research on post-earthquake travel demand is essential for disaster management. An effective disaster management strategy ensures achieving sustainable development goals. This study focused on this critical period and analyzed post-earthquake trip decisions. The city of Elazığ, a region not at risk of tsunami, was used as a case study. A 6.8 magnitude earthquake hit Elazığ in January 2020. After the earthquake, data from 2739 individuals were collected by a household survey conducted face-to-face. The data were segregated into two categories, depending on the earthquake’s intensity. The study used a binary logit model to examine the potential factors of trip decisions after an earthquake. The results showed that 75% of participants made at least one trip within 24 h after the earthquake. It was observed that household, building-and disaster-related attributes influence earthquake survivors’ trip decisions. The initial location at the time of the earthquake was the most significant factor affecting trip decisions. It was also found that individuals who experienced the earthquake outside their homes in both datasets were more likely to make a trip. Additionally, the dataset with higher earthquake intensity had more significant variables affecting the trip decision.

Keywords: trip decision; binary logit model; discrete choice analysis; transportation models; evacuation; earthquake (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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