Analysis of the Impact of Policies and Meteorological Factors on Industrial Electricity Demand in Jiangsu Province

Zhanyang Xu, Jian Xu (), Chengxi Xu, Hong Zhao, Hongyan Shi and Zhe Wang
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Zhanyang Xu: School of Soft, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Jian Xu: School of Soft, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Chengxi Xu: Halıcıoğlu Data Science Institute, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92092, USA
Hong Zhao: School of Soft, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Hongyan Shi: School of Soft, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Zhe Wang: School of Soft, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 22, 1-23

Abstract: Under the strategic background of “carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060”, the impact of energy policy on China’s industrial electricity demand is increasingly significant. This study focuses on the industrial electricity demand in Jiangsu Province, comprehensively considering the impact of policy and meteorological factors, and uses multivariate regression analysis to systematically explore the impact mechanisms of policy adjustments and climate change on industrial electricity demand. First, by analyzing the policy background and climate characteristics of Jiangsu Province, relevant policy and meteorological indicators are extracted, followed by a correlation analysis and the establishment of an industrial electricity multivariate regression prediction model. Finally, the evolution of the industrial electricity load in Jiangsu Province under different socio-economic pathways is forecasted. The results show the following: (1) Policy factors such as the electrification rate and self-generated electricity show significant correlation with electricity demand, as do meteorological factors such as temperature. (2) The future industrial electricity level in Jiangsu Province is expected to show a fluctuating upward trend, with industrial electricity consumption reaching 767.51 to 794.32 billion kWh by 2035. Accordingly, the forecast results are expected to guide future planning of the industrial electricity system in Jiangsu Province under the carbon neutrality scenario.

Keywords: industrial electricity demand forecasting; policy and meteorological impacts; multivariate regression analysis; hierarchical analysis model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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