Identification and Trend Analysis of Ecological Security Pattern in Mudanjiang City Based on MSPA-MCR-PLUS Model

Pei-Xian Liu, Ying Liu (), Tie-Nan Li, Wei-Wei Guo, A-Long Yang, Xiao Yang, En-Zhong Li () and Zheng-Jun Wang
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Pei-Xian Liu: School of Hydraulic and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, China
Ying Liu: School of Hydraulic and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, China
Tie-Nan Li: Heilongjiang Provincial Water Conservancy Science Research Institute, Harbin 150080, China
Wei-Wei Guo: Heilongjiang Provincial Water Conservancy Science Research Institute, Harbin 150080, China
A-Long Yang: Heilongjiang Provincial Water Conservancy Science Research Institute, Harbin 150080, China
Xiao Yang: School of Hydraulic and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, China
En-Zhong Li: Heilongjiang Water Investment Linhai Reservoir Water Supply Engineering Management Co., Ltd., Mudanjiang 157000, China
Zheng-Jun Wang: School of Hydraulic and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 22, 1-24

Abstract: The ecological security pattern plays a crucial role in maintaining ecosystem health and ensuring ecological security. The establishment of the ecological security pattern in Mudanjiang City can provide a scientific basis and effective support for stabilizing the ecological environment, mitigating regional human–land conflicts, and rational land- use planning. This paper utilizes the theory of constructing an ecological security pattern using a source-resistance plane-corridor node to grade the importance of source areas based on the connectivity index. It combines morphological spatial pattern analysis and PLUS model to generate and identify the present value of 2022 in Mudanjiang City, as well as predict eight land types and seven landscape types under three development scenarios by 2032. A transfer matrix and transfer-intensity map are introduced to explore the structural characteristics of landscape transfer, while four fragmentation indexes are combined with principal component analysis and the coefficient of variation method to form comprehensive fragmentation indexes for different classes. Finally, based on constructing the ecological security pattern of Mudanjiang City in 2022, an analysis method is developed that establishes logical connections between land-use structure, a comprehensive fragmentation of land types, landscape transformation mechanism, and the importance of ecological sources. The results are as follows: (1) In Mudanjiang City, 23 ecological source areas, 65 corridors, and 66 ecological nodes were extracted. The overall ecological security pattern shows a “U” shape with openings to the northeast. (2) The cumulative weight of economic and social factors on the ecological resistance surface in Mudanjiang City reached 51.36%. (3) The response between the comprehensive fragmentation degree of forest land and the importance of primary and tertiary source areas was highly significant, with R values reaching 0.9675 and −0.8746, respectively. The comparative study comprehensively showed that the best scenario for the sustainable development of the ecological security pattern in the future is an ecological priority scenario, where the tertiary source area with the smallest area proportion but strongest disturbance fluctuation becomes a key area affecting connectivity and overall ecological security pattern in Mudanjiang City.

Keywords: ecological security pattern; morphological spatial pattern analysis; minimum cumulative resistance model; multi-scenario land-use simulation; fragmentation degree (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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