Has There Been a Recent Warming Slowdown over North China?

Man Zhang, Chengguo Zhang, Dengpan Xiao, Yaning Chen () and Qingxi Zhang
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Man Zhang: Hebei Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction, College of Geography Science, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China
Chengguo Zhang: Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021, China
Dengpan Xiao: Hebei Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction, College of Geography Science, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China
Yaning Chen: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Qingxi Zhang: School of Land Science and Space Planning, Hebei GEO University, Shijiazhuang 050031, China

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 22, 1-22

Abstract: The warming slowdown observed between 1998 and 2012 has raised concerns in recent years. To examine the temporal and spatial variations in annual mean temperature (Tmp) as well as 12 extreme temperature indices (ETIs), and to assess the presence of a warming slowdown in North China (NC), we analyzed homogenized daily observational datasets from 79 meteorological stations spanning 1960 to 2020. Additionally, we investigated the influences of 78 atmospheric circulation indices (ACIs) on ETIs during the period of warming slowdown. To compare temperature changes, the study area was divided into three parts based on topographic conditions: Areas I, II, and III. The results revealed significant warming trends in Tmp and the 12 ETIs from 1960 to 2020. Comparing the time frames of 1960–1998, 2012–2020, and 1998–2012, both Tmp and the 12 ETIs displayed a cooling trend in the latter period, confirming the existence of a warming slowdown in NC. Notably, indices derived from daily maximum temperature exhibited higher cooling rates during 1998–2012, with winter contributing most significantly to the cooling trend among the four seasons. The most pronounced warming slowdown was observed in Area I, followed by Area III and Area II. Furthermore, our attribution analysis of ACIs concerning the temperature change indicated that the Asia Polar Vortex Area Index may have had the greatest influence on ETIs from 1960 to 2016. Moreover, the weakening of the Tibet Plateau Index Band and the Asian Latitudinal Circulation Index, and the strengthening of the Eurasian Latitudinal Circulation Index, were closely associated with ETIs during the warming slowdown period in NC. Through this research, we aim to deepen our understanding of climate change in NC and offer a valuable reference for the sustainable development of its natural ecology and social economy.

Keywords: warming slowdown; extreme temperature index; climate change; atmospheric circulation; North China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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