Future Projections of Heat Waves and Associated Mortality Risk in a Coastal Mediterranean City

Giorgos Papadopoulos (), Stavros C. Keppas, Daphne Parliari, Serafim Kontos, Sofia Papadogiannaki and Dimitrios Melas ()
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Giorgos Papadopoulos: Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, School of Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Stavros C. Keppas: Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, School of Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Daphne Parliari: Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, School of Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Serafim Kontos: Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, School of Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Sofia Papadogiannaki: Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, School of Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece
Dimitrios Melas: Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, School of Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 3, 1-23

Abstract: Climate change has been linked to the escalating frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves in the Mediterranean region, intensifying health concerns for the general populace. Urban environments face elevated health risks due to concentrated populations and the urban heat island effect, further amplifying nighttime heat conditions. This study aims to project changes in heat wave characteristics and the associated population exposure risk in a large Mediterranean city, Thessaloniki, Greece. High-resolution climate simulations, using the WRF model, were conducted for three 5-year periods (2006–2010, 2046–2050, 2096–2100) under the RCP8.5 emission scenario, covering Thessaloniki with a 2 km grid. By the end of the century, Thessaloniki is projected to experience over 60 annual heat wave days, compared to ~8 in the present climate, while some episodes were found to persist beyond 30 days. The relative risk during heat wave days is expected to rise, which is primarily due to nighttime heat stress. Interestingly, the results indicate that minimum apparent temperature might be a more reliable indicator in predicting heat-related mortality compared to maximum apparent temperature. These findings emphasize the growing importance of informed heat mitigation and adaptation strategies and healthcare preparedness in urban areas facing escalating heat-related health challenges.

Keywords: future projections; climate change; Mediterranean; heat waves; heat wave indices; heat-related mortality; relative risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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