Climate Change Impact on the Distribution of Forest Species in the Brazilian Amazon

Ingrid Lana Lima de Morais, Alexandra Amaro de Lima, Ivinne Nara Lobato dos Santos, Carlos Meneses, Rogério Freire da Silva, Ricardo Lopes, Santiago Linorio Ferreyra Ramos, Ananda Virginia de Aguiar, Marcos Silveira Wrege and Maria Teresa Gomes Lopes ()
Additional contact information
Ingrid Lana Lima de Morais: Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Federal University of Amazonas, Avenue Rodrigo Otávio, 3000, Manaus 69060-000, AM, Brazil
Alexandra Amaro de Lima: Institute of Technology and Education Galileo of Amazon, Avenue Joaquim Nabuco, 1950, Manaus 69020-030, AM, Brazil
Ivinne Nara Lobato dos Santos: Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Federal University of Amazonas, Avenue Rodrigo Otávio, 3000, Manaus 69060-000, AM, Brazil
Carlos Meneses: Graduate Program in Agricultural Sciences, Department of Biology, Center for Biological and Health Sciences, State University of Paraíba, Campina Grande 58429-500, PB, Brazil
Rogério Freire da Silva: Graduate Program in Agricultural Sciences, Department of Biology, Center for Biological and Health Sciences, State University of Paraíba, Campina Grande 58429-500, PB, Brazil
Ricardo Lopes: Embrapa Western Amazon, Route AM 10, Km 29, s/n, C.P. 319, Manaus 69010-970, AM, Brazil
Santiago Linorio Ferreyra Ramos: Institute of Exact Sciences and Technology, Federal University of Amazonas, Nossa Senhora do Rosário, 3863, Itacoatiara 69103-128, AM, Brazil
Ananda Virginia de Aguiar: Pollen Laboratory, Embrapa Florestas, Km 111, BR 476, CP. 319, Colombo 83411-000, PR, Brazil
Marcos Silveira Wrege: Pollen Laboratory, Embrapa Florestas, Km 111, BR 476, CP. 319, Colombo 83411-000, PR, Brazil
Maria Teresa Gomes Lopes: Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Federal University of Amazonas, Avenue Rodrigo Otávio, 3000, Manaus 69060-000, AM, Brazil

Sustainability, 2024, vol. 16, issue 8, 1-15

Abstract: Studies using ecological niche models highlight the vulnerability of forest species to climate change. This work aimed to analyze the distribution of timber species Aspidosperma desmanthum , Cariniana micranta , Clarisia racemosa , Couratari oblongifolia , and Vouchysia guianensis , which are targets of deforestation, to predict the impacts of climate change and identify areas for their conservation in the Amazon. For this purpose, 37 environmental variables were used, including climatic and edaphic factors. The models were fitted using five algorithms, and their performance was evaluated by the metrics Area Under the Curve (AUC), True Skill Statistic, and Sorensen Index. The deforestation analysis was conducted using data accumulated over a period of 14 years. The study indicated that under the most pessimistic predictions, considering continued high emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the use of fossil fuels, SSP5–8.5, potential habitat loss for the studied species was more significant. Analyses of the species show that the Western Amazon has a greater climatic suitability area for the conservation of its genetic resources. Further study of the accumulated deforestation over 14 years showed a reduction in area for all species. Therefore, in situ conservation policies and deforestation reduction are recommended for the perpetuation of the analyzed forest species.

Keywords: conservation; niche modeling; impacts of climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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