Optimization Simulation of Land Use in Jiangsu Province Under Multiple Scenarios Based on the PLUS-InVEST Model

Zhuang Tian, Ge Shi (), Jiahang Liu, Yutong Wang, Chuang Chen, Difan Yu and Yunpeng Zhang
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Zhuang Tian: School of Geomatics Science and Technology, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
Ge Shi: School of Geomatics Science and Technology, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
Jiahang Liu: School of Geomatics Science and Technology, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
Yutong Wang: School of Geomatics Science and Technology, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
Chuang Chen: College of Electrical Engineering and Control Science, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
Difan Yu: School of Civil Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China
Yunpeng Zhang: School of Geomatics Science and Technology, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 12, 1-24

Abstract: With the severe challenges resulting from global climate change, the role of land use/land cover (LU/LC) optimization in mitigating carbon emissions and promoting carbon cycle balance has gained increasing attention. This study takes Jiangsu Province as a case study, analyzing the changes in LU/LC from 1995 to 2020 and their impacts on carbon emissions and carbon storage. For Jiangsu Province’s five development scenarios in 2030 (business-as-usual, carbon emission, carbon storage, and carbon neutrality scenarios), objective functions and constraints were constructed. The PLUS model was employed to simulate land use for 2030, predicting carbon storage, economic benefits, and ecological benefits under each scenario and evaluating the impact of each scenario on achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. The findings indicate that (1) from 1995 to 2020 there were great changes in land use types in Jiangsu Province, with an overall downward trend in carbon storage. (2) The simulated land use quantity structure and spatial patterns for 2030 under different scenarios exhibited significant differences. Compared with the Business-as-Usual Scenario, the other four optimized scenarios achieved a better balance between economic and ecological values. (3) The Integrated Scenario realized optimal synergy between farmland protection, ecological expansion, and economic output, representing the best compromise under multiple objectives.

Keywords: land use; multi-objective optimization; carbon storage; scenario simulation; PLUS model; Jiangsu province (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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