The Role of Carbon Removal in Ratcheting India’s Net-Zero Goal

Ayomide Titus Ogungbemi () and Mustafa Dagbasi
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Ayomide Titus Ogungbemi: Energy Systems Engineering Department, Cyprus International University, Mersin 10, Nicosia 99258, Turkey
Mustafa Dagbasi: Energy Systems Engineering Department, Cyprus International University, Mersin 10, Nicosia 99258, Turkey

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 12, 1-17

Abstract: India’s revised nationally determined contribution at COP26 set a net-zero target for 2070, but the role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in achieving this goal remains unclear. This study quantifies the contribution of land-based CDR—bioenergy carbon capture and storage, biochar, and afforestation—in achieving India’s net-zero goal. Additionally, a stylised scenario explores an accelerated net-zero target by 2050 in India`s climate target. The global emission target is modelled to follow India’s climate ambition in both stylised scenarios. The results show that the ambitious 2050 net-zero pathway requires 56 GtCO 2 of cumulative novel CDR across the century, compared to 47 GtCO 2 under the 2070 scenario, with both requiring around 1 GtCO 2 /year at net-zero. A higher ambitious pathway leads to increased economic costs, with a mid-century carbon price of USD 938, compared to USD 174 in the 2070 scenario. Without novel CDR methods, the cost of achieving net zero by 2050 quadruple. The accelerated 2050 net-zero pathway also intensifies land and water trade-offs, reducing land for crop production while increasing water demand for electricity and biomass. Despite these challenges, it limits end-of-century warming to 1.46 °C, compared to 1.79 °C under the 2070 scenario. These findings highlight the importance of clearly defined climate targets, scalable CDR strategies, and integrated resource management to balance climate ambition with sustainable development.

Keywords: net zero; India; carbon dioxide removal; bioenergy carbon capture and storage; biochar; carbon price (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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