Quantitative Assessment of Coal Phaseouts and Retrofit Deployments for Low-Carbon Transition Pathways in China’s Coal Power Sector

Xinxu Zhao, Li Zhang (), Xutao Wang, Kun Wang, Jun Pan, Xin Tian, Liming Yang, Yaoxuan Wang, Yu Ni and Chenghang Zheng
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Xinxu Zhao: China Power Engineering Consulting Corporation, Beijing 100012, China
Li Zhang: China Power Engineering Consulting Corporation, Beijing 100012, China
Xutao Wang: Huadian Electric Power Research Institute Co., Ltd., Hangzhou 310000, China
Kun Wang: TUM School of Computation, Information and Technology, Technical University of Munich, 80937 Garching bei München, Germany
Jun Pan: China Power Engineering Consulting Corporation, Beijing 100012, China
Xin Tian: China Power Engineering Consulting Corporation, Beijing 100012, China
Liming Yang: China Power Engineering Consulting Corporation, Beijing 100012, China
Yaoxuan Wang: China Power Engineering Consulting Corporation, Beijing 100012, China
Yu Ni: China Power Engineering Consulting Corporation, Beijing 100012, China
Chenghang Zheng: State Key Lab of Clean Energy Utilization, Institute of Carbon Neutrality, State Environmental Protection Engineering Center for Coal-Fired Air Pollution Control, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310000, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 13, 1-31

Abstract: Accelerating the low-carbon transition of China’s coal-fired power sector is essential for advancing national sustainability goals and fulfilling global climate commitments. This study introduces an integrated, data-driven analytical framework to facilitate the sustainable transformation of the coal power sector through coordinated unit-level retirements, new capacity planning, and targeted retrofits. By combining a comprehensive unit-level database with a multi-criteria evaluation framework, the analysis incorporates environmental, technical, and economic factors into decision-making for retirement scheduling. Scenario analyses based on the China Energy Transformation Outlook (CETO 2024) delineate both baseline and ideal carbon neutrality pathways. Optimization algorithms are employed to identify cost-effective retrofit strategies or portfolios, minimizing levelized carbon reduction costs. The findings reveal that cumulative emissions can be reduced by 10–14.9 GtCO 2 by 2060, with advanced technologies like CCUS and co-firing contributing over half of retrofit-driven mitigation. The estimated transition cost of 6.2–6.7 trillion CNY underscores the scale of sustainable investment required. Sensitivity analyses further highlight the critical role of reducing green hydrogen costs to enable deep decarbonization. Overall, this study provides a robust and replicable planning tool to support policymakers in formulating strategies that align coal power sector transformation with long-term sustainability and China’s carbon neutrality commitments.

Keywords: low-carbon transition; coal power decarbonization; multi-criteria evaluation; carbon neutrality pathways; low-carbon energy systems; mitigation assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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