Meeting 2030 Targets: Heat Pump Installation Scenarios in Italy

Giovanni Murano (), Francesca Caffari, Nicolandrea Calabrese and Marco Dall’Ombra
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Giovanni Murano: Department Unit for Energy Efficiency (DUEE), Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sus-tainable Economic Development (ENEA), 00196 Rome, Italy
Francesca Caffari: Department Unit for Energy Efficiency (DUEE), Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sus-tainable Economic Development (ENEA), 00196 Rome, Italy
Nicolandrea Calabrese: Department Unit for Energy Efficiency (DUEE), Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sus-tainable Economic Development (ENEA), 00196 Rome, Italy
Marco Dall’Ombra: Italian Association of HVAC System Manufacturers (Assoclima), 20161 Milan, Italy

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 13, 1-32

Abstract: The study examines the role of heat pumps (HPs) in achieving the targets set by the Italian National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) for 2030, using official data and European-recognized calculation methodologies to quantify the renewable energy produced. Starting from the current stock analysis—21 million HPs installed in 2022, providing 39 GW th of thermal capacity—the research outlines potential growth scenarios based on installation trends from the past three years: Scenario A assumes 2.5 million HPs/year, (b) 2.2 million/year, and (c) 1.6 million/year. Only Scenario A, the most ambitious, achieves full compliance with 2030 targets by ensuring over 4723 ktoe of renewable energy produced. An additional Scenario D is analyzed, based on the lowest annual installed capacity observed in the past three years but with a modified technology mix emphasizing air-to-water (A/W) and ground-source water-to-water (W/W) HPs. This scenario still achieves the 2030 goals, reaching 66.04 GW th and 4859 ktoe of renewable energy. The results confirm that technology choices will be strategic to meet the targets. The study also highlights the importance of stable incentive policies, proper development of the industrial supply chain, and a plan for the technological upgrading of the existing systems stock.

Keywords: heat pump technology; fossil gas reduction; air-to-air heat pumps; energy performance simulation; sustainable energy practices; National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC; NECP) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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