Sustainable Rural Development of Regional Economy Complex System: Cognitive Simulation Modeling

Elena L. Lvovna Makarova (), Galina V. Victorovna Gorelova, Elena A. Aleksandrovna Makarova, Anna A. Aleksandrovna Firsova and Veronika Y. Yuryevna Kurenkova
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Elena L. Lvovna Makarova: Institute of Management in Economic, Environmental and Social Systems, Southern Federal University, 105/42 Bolshaya Sadovaya Str., 344006 Rostov-on-Don, Russia
Galina V. Victorovna Gorelova: Institute of Management in Economic, Environmental and Social Systems, Southern Federal University, 105/42 Bolshaya Sadovaya Str., 344006 Rostov-on-Don, Russia
Elena A. Aleksandrovna Makarova: Faculty of Psychology, Pedagogies and Defectology, Don State Technical University, 1 Gagarin Sq., 344000 Rostov-on-Don, Russia
Anna A. Aleksandrovna Firsova: Faculty of Economics, Peoples Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), 6, Miklukho-Maklaya Str., 117198 Moscow, Russia
Veronika Y. Yuryevna Kurenkova: Institute of Management in Economic, Environmental and Social Systems, Southern Federal University, 105/42 Bolshaya Sadovaya Str., 344006 Rostov-on-Don, Russia

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 13, 1-27

Abstract: This paper demonstrates the application of cognitive modeling methods to study problems relating to the functioning and advancement of a strategy for the development of rural areas. Rural areas play a vital role in human life; they have enormous economic, natural, demographic, historical, and cultural potential, and their revival ensures the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals in the field of SDG 2: “End hunger, achieve food security and improve nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture”. The relevance of the study lies in the need to develop approaches in order to improve the efficiency of agriculture and to ensure the sustainable development of rural areas. The goal was to use cognitive modeling tools to understand the cause-and-effect mechanism of ensuring sustainable development of rural areas and analyze their possible development under the influence of internal and external factors to select the best strategy for sustainable development. Based on 24 selected quantitative and qualitative indicators, a cognitive map “Sustainable Development of Rural Areas” was constructed, and an analysis of 351 cycles of the cognitive model was carried out, among which 286 positive and 65 negative cycles were observed, indicating the structural stability of the model. Computational experiments were carried out using pulse and scenario modeling; the results are presented and visualized in the form of five scenarios for complex systems development. The results of this study can be used as decision support tools for substantiating strategies and developing policies for the balanced development of rural areas.

Keywords: rural territories; sustainable development; regional economy; computer modeling; cognitive simulation; scenario analysis; cognitive map; impulse modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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