Quantifying China’s Food Self-Sufficiency and Security Transition Based on Flow and Consumption Analyses

Huanyu Chang, Yong Zhao, Yongqiang Cao, Rong Liu, Wei Li, He Ren, Zhen Hong and Jiaqi Yao ()
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Huanyu Chang: Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
Yong Zhao: State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China
Yongqiang Cao: Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
Rong Liu: State Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (IWHR), Beijing 100038, China
Wei Li: General Institute of Water Conservancy Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100120, China
He Ren: Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
Zhen Hong: Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China
Jiaqi Yao: Academy of Eco-Civilization Development for Jing-Jin-Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 13, 1-25

Abstract: This study aims to develop and apply an improved flow–consumption statistics (FCS) method to more accurately assess food and grain self-sufficiency in China. By incorporating dynamic food loss and waste estimates, the FCS method enhances accuracy and spatial resolution. Results from 2010 to 2022 show a national decline in food self-sufficiency to 82%, while grain self-sufficiency remains above 90%. Nineteen provinces failed to achieve food self-sufficiency, with notable regional disparities. Northern inland areas outperform southern coastal regions, which rely more on inter-regional transfers. The average national food loss and waste rate reached 22.8%. The FCS method provides a robust tool for policymakers to evaluate food security risks amid shifting socio-economic and environmental conditions.

Keywords: food self-sufficiency; food security; food consumption; flow–consumption statistics; spatiotemporal pattern; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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