Global Warming-Driven Changes in the Suitable Habitat of Ostryopsis davidiana (Betulaceae) Shrubs

Huayong Zhang (), Xinxing Cui, Yihe Zhang, Zhongyu Wang and Zhao Liu
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Huayong Zhang: Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Xinxing Cui: Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Yihe Zhang: School of Engineering, RMIT University, P.O. Box 71, Bundoora, VIC 3083, Australia
Zhongyu Wang: Research Center for Engineering Ecology and Nonlinear Science, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
Zhao Liu: Theoretical Ecology and Engineering Ecology Research Group, School of Life Sciences, Shandong University, Qingdao 250100, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 14, 1-21

Abstract: Ostryopsis davidiana shrubs, widely distributed in northern China, have been significantly affected by global warming. Based on the current geographical distribution data of O. davidiana in China, this study used climate data, soil data, topographic data, human activity data, and the “biomod2” integrated model to conduct an integrated study on the suitable habitat of O. davidiana under the current scenario and three future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). The results showed the following: (1) The suitable habitats of O. davidiana are mainly concentrated in the northwest and north China regions, accounting for about 9.09% of the national area, centered in Shanyin County, Shuozhou City, Shanxi Province. (2) The suitable habitats of O. davidiana are mainly influenced by temperature and precipitation, with precipitation of wettest quarter (Bio16), isothermality (Bio3), and maximum temperature of warmest month (Bio5) being the key driving factors, with contribution rates of 25.69%, 24.31%, and 14.45%, respectively. (3) Under the three future climate scenarios, the suitable habitats of O. davidiana are expected to contract significantly, with only the low suitability areas expanding, while the rest would be contracting, showing a trend of losing most of their original habitat. The centroid of the suitable habitat would be shifting westward, and the suitable habitats would be generally migrating to higher elevation areas. (4) Climate change reduces the aggregation of O. davidiana , leading to gradual habitat fragmentation. This study provides a theoretical basis for the conservation of O. davidiana .

Keywords: suitable habitat; global warming; Ostryopsis davidiana; centroid migration; biomod2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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