Agricultural Land Market Dynamics and Their Economic Implications for Sustainable Development in Poland

Marcin Gospodarowicz (), Bożena Karwat-Woźniak, Emil Ślązak, Adam Wasilewski () and Anna Wasilewska
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Marcin Gospodarowicz: Institute of Banking, Warsaw School of Economics, Niepodległości Av. 162, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland
Bożena Karwat-Woźniak: Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics—National Research Institute, Świętokrzyska Str. 20, 00-002 Warsaw, Poland
Emil Ślązak: Institute of Banking, Warsaw School of Economics, Niepodległości Av. 162, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland
Adam Wasilewski: Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics—National Research Institute, Świętokrzyska Str. 20, 00-002 Warsaw, Poland
Anna Wasilewska: Faculty of Economics, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, Nowoursynowska Str. 166, 02-787 Warsaw, Poland

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 14, 1-24

Abstract: This study examines Poland’s agricultural land market between 2009 and 2023 through fixed effects and spatial econometric models, highlighting economic and spatial determinants of land prices. Key results show that GDP per capita strongly increases land values (β = +0.699, p < 0.001), while agricultural gross value added (–2.698, p = 0.009), soil quality (–6.241, p < 0.001), and land turnover (–0.395, p < 0.001) are associated with lower prices. Spatial dependence is confirmed (λ = 0.74), revealing strong regional spillovers. The volume of state-owned WRSP land sales declined from 37.4 thousand hectares in 2015 to 3.1 thousand hectares in 2023, while non-market transfers, such as donations, exceeded 49,000 annually. Although these trends support farmland protection and family farms, they also reduce market mobility and hinder generational renewal. The findings call for more flexible, sustainability-oriented land governance that combines ecological performance, regional equity, and improved access for young farmers.

Keywords: agricultural land prices; sustainable development; spatial econometrics; land governance; family farming (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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