Do Economic Growth Targets Aggravate Environmental Pollution? Evidence from China

Jianbao Chen and Chenwei Wu ()
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Jianbao Chen: School of Artificial Intelligence, Xiamen Institute of Technology, Xiamen 361021, China
Chenwei Wu: School of Mathematics and Statistics, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou 350117, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 14, 1-23

Abstract: How to balance the relationship between economic development and environmental protection is a common challenge faced by developing countries. Based on panel data from 30 Chinese provinces between 2008 to 2021, we analyze the impact of economic growth targets (EGTs) on environmental pollution (EP) using a spatial autoregressive threshold panel (SARTP) model. The empirical findings are as follows. (1) A 1% increase in the EP index in adjacent provinces leads to a 0.5870% increase in the observing province. (2) For provinces with EGTs above 7.5%, a 1% increase in the EGT results in a 0.3799% increase in the EP index. Conversely, its impact on EP is not significant. (3) As EGTs increase, the EP effect intensifies in central provinces, weakens in western provinces, and remains insignificant in eastern provinces; the EP effect of EGTs is significantly greater in provinces with a large population size and a low proportion of tertiary industry. (4) When the provincial EGT exceeds the central target by 0.5%, a 1% increase in the EGT results in a 0.4469% increase in the EP index. Our paper offers theoretical and empirical insights for alleviating EP and promoting sustainable economic development.

Keywords: economic growth target; environmental pollution; threshold effect; SARTP model; top–down amplification of economic growth targets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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