Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Future Climate Change Response of Forest Carbon Sinks in an Ecologically Oriented County

Jiale Lei, Caihong Chen (), Jiyun She and Ye Xu
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Jiale Lei: College of Forestry, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
Caihong Chen: College of Forestry, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
Jiyun She: College of Forestry, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China
Ye Xu: College of Forestry, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha 410004, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 14, 1-22

Abstract: Research on forest carbon sinks is crucial for mitigating global climate change and achieving carbon peaking and neutrality. However, studies at the county level remain relatively limited. This study utilized multi-source remote sensing data and the Carnegie–Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) and soil respiration models to estimate the forest net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in Taoyuan County from 2000 to 2023. The spatiotemporal differentiation was analyzed using seasonal Mann–Kendall tests, Theil–Sen slope estimation, and standard deviation ellipses. The forest NEP for 2035 was predicted under multiple climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) by applying a discrete coupling of the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, incorporating territorial spatial planning policy, and using the CASA model. The results indicated that the Taoyuan County forest NEP exhibited a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2023, with higher (lower) values in the west/south (east/north). Under future warming and humidification, the overall forest NEP in Taoyuan County was projected to decrease by 2035, with predicted NEP values across scenarios ranking as SSP5-8.5 > SSP1-2.6 > SSP2-4.5. The findings offer practical insights for improving local forest management, optimizing forest configuration, and guiding county-level “dual-carbon” policies under future climate and land use change, thereby contributing to ecological sustainability.

Keywords: forest carbon sink; NEP; CASA model; PLUS model; Taoyuan County (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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