Variability of Summer Drought and Heatwave Events in Northeast China

Rui Wang (), Longpeng Cong, Ying Sun and Xiaotian Bai
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Rui Wang: School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Liaoning University of Technology, Jinzhou 121001, China
Longpeng Cong: School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Liaoning University of Technology, Jinzhou 121001, China
Ying Sun: School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Liaoning University of Technology, Jinzhou 121001, China
Xiaotian Bai: School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Liaoning University of Technology, Jinzhou 121001, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 14, 1-24

Abstract: As global climate change intensifies, extreme climate events are becoming more frequent, presenting significant challenges to socioeconomic systems and ecosystems. Northeast China, a region highly sensitive to climate change, has been profoundly impacted by compound drought and heat extremes (CDHEs), affecting agriculture, society, and the economy. To evaluate the characteristics and evolution of summer CDHEs in this region, this study analyzed observational data from 81 meteorological stations (1961–2020) and developed a Standardized Temperature–Precipitation Index (STPI) using the Copula joint probability method. The STPI’s effectiveness in characterizing compound drought and heat conditions was validated against historical records. Using the constructed STPI, this study conducted a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of CDHEs. The Theil–Sen median trend analysis, Mann–Kendall trend tests, and the frequency of CDHEs were employed to examine drought and heatwave patterns and their influence on compound events. The findings demonstrated an increase in the severity of compound drought and heat events over time. Although the STPI exhibited a slight interannual decline, its values remained above −2.0, indicating the continued intensification of these events in the study area. Most of the stations showed a non-significant decline in the Standardized Precipitation Index and a significant rise in the Standardized Temperature Index, indicating that rising temperatures primarily drive the increasing severity of compound drought and heat events. The 1990s marked a turning point with a significant increase in the frequency, severity, and spatial extent of these events.

Keywords: compound drought and heat events; drought and heat index; copula; northeast China; standardized precipitation index; standardized temperature index (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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