Foresight for Sustainable Last-Mile Delivery: A Delphi-Based Scenario Study for Smart Cities in 2030

Ibrahim Mutambik ()
Additional contact information
Ibrahim Mutambik: Department of Information Science, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, King Saud University, Riyadh P.O. Box 11451, Saudi Arabia

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 15, 1-30

Abstract: This study aimed to investigate the future trajectories of last-mile delivery (LMD), and their implications for sustainable urban logistics and smart city planning. Through a Delphi-based scenario analysis targeting the year 2030, this research draws on inputs from a two-round Delphi study with 52 experts representing logistics, academia, and government. Four key thematic areas were explored: consumer demand and behavior, emerging delivery technologies, innovative delivery services, and regulatory frameworks. The projections were structured using fuzzy c-means clustering, and analyzed through the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT), supporting a systemic understanding of innovation adoption in urban logistics systems. The findings offer strategic insights for municipal planners, policymakers, logistics service providers, and e-commerce stakeholders, helping align infrastructure development and regulatory planning with the evolving needs of last-mile logistics. This approach contributes to advancing resilient, low-emission, and inclusive smart city ecosystems that align with global sustainability goals, particularly those outlined in the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Keywords: Delphi study; e-commerce; healthcare service optimization; last-mile delivery; smart city planning; technology acceptance model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/15/6660/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/17/15/6660/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:17:y:2025:i:15:p:6660-:d:1706748

Access Statistics for this article

Sustainability is currently edited by Ms. Alexandra Wu

More articles in Sustainability from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().