Spatiotemporal Differentiation and Driving Factors Analysis of the EU Natural Gas Market Based on Geodetector

Xin Ren, Qishen Chen (), Kun Wang, Yanfei Zhang, Guodong Zheng, Chenghong Shang and Dan Song
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Xin Ren: Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China
Qishen Chen: Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China
Kun Wang: Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China
Yanfei Zhang: Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China
Guodong Zheng: Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China
Chenghong Shang: Institute of Mineral Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100037, China
Dan Song: School of Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 15, 1-18

Abstract: In 2022, the Russia–Ukraine conflict has severely impacted the EU’s energy supply chain, and the EU’s natural gas import pattern has begun to reconstruct, and exploring the spatiotemporal differentiation of EU natural gas trade and its driving factors is the basis for improving the resilience of its supply chain and ensuring the stable supply of energy resources. This paper summarizes the law of the change of its import volume by using the complex network method, constructs a multi-dimensional index system such as demand, economy, and security, and uses the geographic detector model to mine the driving factors affecting the spatiotemporal evolution of natural gas imports in EU countries and propose different sustainable development paths. The results show that from 2000 to 2023, Europe’s natural gas imports generally show an upward trend, and the import structure has undergone great changes, from pipeline gas dominance to LNG diversification. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the number of import source countries has increased, the market network has become looser, France has become the core hub of the EU natural gas market, the importance of Russia has declined rapidly, and the status of countries in the United States, North Africa, and the Middle East has increased rapidly; natural gas consumption is the leading factor in the spatiotemporal differentiation of EU natural gas imports, and the influence of import distance and geopolitical risk is gradually expanding, and the proportion of energy consumption is significantly higher than that of other factors in the interaction with other factors. Combined with the driving factors, three different evolutionary directions of natural gas imports in EU countries are identified, and energy security paths such as improving supply chain control capabilities, ensuring export stability, and using location advantages to become hub nodes are proposed for different development trends.

Keywords: natural gas; complex networks; geodetector; driving factors; sustainable development paths (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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