The Effects of Natural and Social Factors on Surface Temperature in a Typical Cold-Region City of the Northern Temperate Zone: A Case Study of Changchun, China

Maosen Lin, Yifeng Liu, Wei Xu (), Bihao Gao, Xiaoyi Wang, Cuirong Wang and Dali Guo
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Maosen Lin: College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110161, China
Yifeng Liu: College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110161, China
Wei Xu: College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110161, China
Bihao Gao: College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110161, China
Xiaoyi Wang: College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110161, China
Cuirong Wang: Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Dali Guo: College of Water Conservancy, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110161, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 15, 1-14

Abstract: Land cover, topography, precipitation, and socio-economic factors exert both direct and indirect influences on urban land surface temperatures. Within the broader context of global climate change, these influences are magnified by the escalating intensity of the urban heat island effect. However, the interplay and underlying mechanisms of natural and socio-economic determinants of land surface temperatures remain inadequately explored, particularly in the context of cold-region cities located in the northern temperate zone of China. This study focuses on Changchun City, employing multispectral remote sensing imagery to derive and spatially map the distribution of land surface temperatures and topographic attributes. Through comprehensive analysis, the research identifies the principal drivers of temperature variations and delineates their seasonal dynamics. The findings indicate that population density, night-time light intensity, land use, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), relief, and elevation exhibit positive correlations with land surface temperature, whereas slope demonstrates a negative correlation. Among natural factors, the correlations of slope, relief, and elevation with land surface temperature are comparatively weak, with determination coefficients (R 2 ) consistently below 0.15. In contrast, socio-economic factors exert a more pronounced influence, ranked as follows: population density (R 2 = 0.4316) > GDP (R 2 = 0.2493) > night-time light intensity (R 2 = 0.1626). The overall hierarchy of the impact of individual factors on the temperature model, from strongest to weakest, is as follows: population, night-time light intensity, land use, GDP, slope, relief, and elevation. In examining Changchun and analogous cold-region cities within the northern temperate zone, the research underscores that socio-economic factors substantially outweigh natural determinants in shaping urban land surface temperatures. Notably, human activities catalyzed by population growth emerge as the most influential factor, profoundly reshaping the urban thermal landscape. These activities not only directly escalate anthropogenic heat emissions, but also alter land cover compositions, thereby undermining natural cooling mechanisms and exacerbating the urban heat island phenomenon.

Keywords: surface temperature; seasonal variation; urban heat island effect; surface utilization; social factors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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