The Impact of High-Quality Development of Foreign Trade on Marine Economic Quality: Empirical Evidence from Coastal Provinces and Cities in China

Linsen Zhu, Yan Li, Lei Suo () and Haiying Feng
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Linsen Zhu: Beibu Gulf Ocean Development Research Center, Beibu Gulf University, Qinzhou 535011, China
Yan Li: The School of Economics and Management, Beibu Gulf University, Qinzhou 535011, China
Lei Suo: Beibu Gulf Ocean Development Research Center, Beibu Gulf University, Qinzhou 535011, China
Haiying Feng: Beibu Gulf Ocean Development Research Center, Beibu Gulf University, Qinzhou 535011, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 17, 1-29

Abstract: Against the backdrop of a complex global economic landscape, foreign trade serves as a critical link integrating China’s marine economy with the global market, playing an indispensable role in advancing high-quality marine economic development in China and realizing the strategic goal of building a strong maritime nation. Utilizing panel data covering 11 coastal provinces and municipalities in China from 2013 to 2022, this research adopts a double machine learning approach to examine the effects and mechanisms through which the high-quality development of foreign trade (HQD) shapes high-quality marine economic development (THQ) in China. The empirical results demonstrate that (1) high-quality development of foreign trade significantly promotes high-quality marine economic development in China, with a 1-unit increase in the former corresponding to a 1.437-unit rise in the latter. This finding withstands multiple robustness checks. (2) Mechanism analysis indicates that this promotion occurs through three channels: strengthening marine environmental regulation, enhancing marine labor productivity, and upgrading the marine industrial structure. (3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of high-quality foreign trade is stronger in China’s eastern marine economic region. Simultaneously, the trade development environment emerges as a key factor exerting a significantly positive influence on marine economic quality during China’s foreign trade advancement. The empirical findings propose the following optimization countermeasures for high-quality marine economic development: strengthening marine environmental regulation, enhancing marine labor productivity, and promoting the upgrading of the marine industrial structure.

Keywords: foreign trade; marine economy; high-quality development; double machine learning; transmission mechanisms (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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