A Study on the Dynamic Evolution and Influencing Factors of Total Factor Productivity in China’s Civil Aviation Industry Considering Carbon Emissions

Mengyu Guo and Li Zhang ()
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Mengyu Guo: College of Air Transportation, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China
Li Zhang: College of Air Transportation, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 19, 1-24

Abstract: This study evaluates China’s civil aviation total factor productivity (TFP) in 2000–2021, treating carbon emissions as undesirable output via the Global Malmquist–Luenberger (GML) index, with a modified carbon emission estimation coefficient to boost calculation accuracy. Static and dynamic time series regression models analyze short/long-term effects of influencing factors. Results show civil aviation TFP grows ~0.3% annually, stable with cyclical fluctuations, and exhibits dynamic adjustment and mean reversion. Market demand/competition significantly positively affect TFP in both models; technological innovation and capital investment have substantial lagged effects (not significant in the static model). The contributions include three aspects. First, methodological innovation through a revised carbon emission coefficient. Second, theoretical expansion by combining static and dynamic models. Third, macro policy guidance for balancing economic-environmental performance under China’s dual carbon strategy.

Keywords: civil aviation sector; total factor productivity; global Malmquist–Luenberger index; carbon emission correction coefficient; time series regression analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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