Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Truck Charging Assessment to 2035 in California: Projections and Practical Challenges

Hong Yang (), Marshall Miller, Lewis Fulton and Aravind Kailas
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Hong Yang: Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
Marshall Miller: Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
Lewis Fulton: Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
Aravind Kailas: Volvo Group North America, Greensboro, NC 27409, USA

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 19, 1-20

Abstract: As of mid-2025, California maintains a target (and legal agreement with truck OEMs) to achieve 100% zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty (M/HD) truck sales by 2036. While the US federal government has relaxed its targets, fuel economy standards continue to incentivize electrification. To meet these ambitions, the adequate rollout of charging infrastructure at scale is needed. This paper reviews existing studies on M/HD charging and investment needs in California and the U.S. This paper introduces a novel matrix that delineates charging needs by charging power, truck type (Class 2b-8), charger-to-vehicle ratios, and charger investment costs. Results indicate that California may require 151,000 to 156,000 depot and public chargers on the road by 2030, growing to 434,000 to 460,000 chargers on the road by 2035. Corresponding investment—including new installation and replacement—could reach USD 7.1 to USD 7.4 billion by 2030 and USD 16.4 to USD 17.8 billion by 2035. Meeting this scale of infrastructure deployment represents not only a technical challenge but also a sustainability imperative, demanding unprecedented coordination among policymakers, utilities, and fleet operators to overcome barriers like financing and permitting and to ensure infrastructure growth aligns with climate commitments and equitable access.

Keywords: medium-duty; heavy-duty; zero emission; truck; charging; infrastructure; California; sustainability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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