Carbon Abatement Effect of Chinese Certified Emission Reduction Projects in Agriculture and Forestry: An Empirical Study

Chongjia Luo and Xuhai Zhou ()
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Chongjia Luo: Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
Xuhai Zhou: Center for China and Japan Economic Research, Institute of Japanese Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing 100007, China

Sustainability, 2025, vol. 17, issue 19, 1-22

Abstract: Whether voluntary carbon markets can effectively contribute to climate mitigation remains a debated issue. Taking Chinese Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) projects as a quasi-natural experiment, this study employed a difference-in-difference approach calibrated with a county-level panel dataset spanning 2008–2021 to examine the carbon abatement effect of CCER projects. The results show that CCER projects reduced county-level emissions by 2.8%, though this reduction falls short of the levels self-declared by project developers, implying the possibility of overstating emission reductions. The carbon abatement effect is more pronounced in biogas projects and projects verified by large agencies, underscoring the mitigation potential of biogas deployment as well as the importance of professional expertise in enhancing project quality. In addition, CCER projects generate a range of socio-economic benefits, including raising income, creating employment opportunities, and preserving farmland. Overall, this study identified the effectiveness of voluntary carbon markets, providing valuable insights for fostering their further sustainable development.

Keywords: Chinese Certified Emission reduction projects; carbon abatement; socio-economic benefits; agriculture and forestry; environmental policies; difference-in-difference (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O13 Q Q0 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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