Demographic effects of earthquakes in Center-South Italy

Roberto Basile (), Francesca Centofanti (), Giovanna Ciaffi () and Francesca Licari ()
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Roberto Basile: Department of Legal and Economic Studies, Sapienza University of Rome
Francesca Centofanti: University of Rome "Tor Vergata"
Giovanna Ciaffi: University of Bari "Aldo Moro"
Francesca Licari: Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)

No 75, Public Finance Research Papers from Istituto di Economia e Finanza, DSGE, Sapienza University of Rome

Abstract: This paper evaluates the demographic effects of two major earthquakes — L’Aquila 2009 and Central Italy 2016 — in Central-Southern Italy, a wide area already experiencing depopulation due to factors unrelated to natural disasters. Using municipality-level data (2002–2023) and a difference-in-differences design with multiple groups and periods, we estimate causal impacts on depopulation, age structure, natural dynamics, and migration. Results suggest an acceleration of the decline in the overall population of the area due to these natural disasters, especially among elder Italians, largely driven by out-migration, while natural demographic dynamics remained stable. Effects differ across disasters: the 2016 earthquake caused declines in all age groups, whereas in 2009 population losses among elderly Italians were offset by gains in working-age foreigners.

Keywords: natural disasters; demography; earthquakes; migration; Italy; depopulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 Q54 R10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: (da verificare — non indicato esplicitamente nel PDF)
Date: 2025-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-eur and nep-lab
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gfe:pfrp00:00075

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