Demographic effects of earthquakes in center-south Italy

Roberto Basile (), Francesca Centofanti (), Giovanna Ciaffi () and Francesca Licari ()
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Roberto Basile: Sapienza Università di Roma – Dipartimento di Studi Giuridici ed Economici
Francesca Centofanti: Università di Roma “Tor Vergataâ€
Giovanna Ciaffi: Università di Bari “Aldo Moroâ€
Francesca Licari: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT)

No 75, Public Finance Research Papers from Istituto di Economia e Finanza, DSGE, Sapienza University of Rome

Abstract: This paper evaluates the demographic effects of two major earthquakes - L’Aquila 2009 and Central Italy 2016 - in Central-Southern Italy, a wide area already experiencing depopulation due to factors unrelated to natural disasters. Using municipality-level data (2002- 2023) and a difference-in-differences design with multiple groups and periods, we estimate causal impacts on depopulation, age structure, natural dynamics, and migration. Results suggest an acceleration of the decline in the overall population of the area due to these natural disasters, especially among elder Italians, largely driven by out-migration, while natural demographic dynamics remained stable. Effects differ across disasters: the 2016 earthquake caused declines in all age groups, whereas in 2009 population losses among elderly Italians were offset by gains in working-age foreigners.

Keywords: Natural disasters; Demography; Counterfactual analysis; Italy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 Q54 R10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 51 pages
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-env, nep-eur and nep-lab
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gfe:pfrp00:00075

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