Spatial convergence in aging: The role of migration

Roberto Basile (), Cinzia Castagnaro (), Francesca Centofanti () and Francesca Licari ()
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Roberto Basile: Sapienza Università di Roma – Dipartimento di Studi Giuridici ed Economici
Cinzia Castagnaro: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT)
Francesca Centofanti: Università di Roma “Tor Vergataâ€
Francesca Licari: Istituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT)

No 77, Public Finance Research Papers from Istituto di Economia e Finanza, DSGE, Sapienza University of Rome

Abstract: Population aging challenges welfare systems, particularly in rapidly aging countries such as Italy. Using municipality-level data (2002–2023), this paper examines aging dynamics through the Potential Support Ratio (PSR), the ratio of working-age (15–64) to old-age (65+) population. We apply a beta regression framework to analyze spatial convergence and a two-step decomposition to disentangle the contributions of cohort turnover, mortality, and migration. Findings show strong convergence in aging, with international migration partly mitigating demographic imbalance, while internal migration exacerbates it, increasing fragility in peripheral areas. Policy implications highlight the need to strengthen welfare sustainability and regional equity.

Keywords: Population aging; Migration; Beta convergence; Demographic decomposition; Potential support ratio; Italy. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C21 F22 J61 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 52 pages
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-eur and nep-lab
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gfe:pfrp00:00077

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