Population aging, potential support ratio and migration in Italian municipalities

Roberto Basile (), Cinzia Castagnaro (), Francesca Centofanti () and Francesca Licari ()
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Roberto Basile: Department of Legal and Economic Studies, Sapienza University of Rome
Cinzia Castagnaro: Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)
Francesca Centofanti: University of Rome "Tor Vergata"
Francesca Licari: Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)

No 77, Public Finance Research Papers from Istituto di Economia e Finanza, DSGE, Sapienza University of Rome

Abstract: Population aging challenges welfare systems, particularly in rapidly aging countries such as Italy. Using municipality-level data (2002–2023), this paper examines aging dynamics through the Potential Support Ratio (PSR), the ratio of working-age (15–64) to old-age (65+) population. We apply a beta regression framework to analyze spatial convergence and a two-step decomposition to disentangle the contributions of cohort turnover, mortality, and migration. Findings show strong convergence in aging, with international migration partly mitigating demographic imbalance, while internal migration exacerbates it, increasing fragility in peripheral areas. Policy implications highlight the need to strengthen welfare sustainability and regional equity.

Keywords: population aging; migration; potential support ratio; Italy; spatial convergence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 C21 F22 J61 R23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 52
Date: 2025-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-eur and nep-lab
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gfe:pfrp00:00077

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