The Double-Digit Trigger: Estimating Inflation Attention Thresholds in Ukraine Using Parliamentary Speeches

Maksym Homeniuk
Additional contact information
Maksym Homeniuk: National Bank of Ukraine

No 14-2025, IHEID Working Papers from Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies

Abstract: This paper estimates Ukraine's inflation attention threshold using a text-based proxy derived from the relative frequency of the word "inflation" in parliamentary speeches. During a relatively stable macroeconomic period between 2017 and 2022, the estimated threshold is approximately 9-10 percent. This finding aligns with results obtained using Google Trends data, where attention increased just prior to inflation reaching double-digit levels. Crucially, the parliamentary proxy also facilitates estimation for another stable period preceding the global financial crisis (2002-2007). The remarkably similar threshold estimates across both stable periods suggest that attention dynamics in Ukraine exhibit structural consistency under non-crisis conditions. These findings underscore the value of parliamentary speech analysis as a robust tool for tracking inflation salience in contexts with limited data availability.

Keywords: inflation; attention; parliamentary speeches; threshold regression; monetary policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C82 D83 E31 E52 E71 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
Date: 2025-09-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-cis and nep-mon
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://repec.graduateinstitute.ch/pdfs/Working_papers/HEIDWP14-2025.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp14-2025

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in IHEID Working Papers from Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dorina Dobre ().