Does the business cycle respond to food prices

Marcelo Santos and Tiago Neves Sequeira
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Marcelo Santos: University of Coimbra, CeBER and Faculty of Economics
Tiago Neves Sequeira: University of Coimbra, CeBER and Faculty of Economics

No 2025-02, CeBER Working Papers from Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra

Abstract: The impact of food prices on food security and short-term economic cycles has recently come into focus due to global supply shortages caused by the Black Sea blockade and the war in Ukraine. We compiled a comprehensive database of prices and output to estimate the short-term effects of food prices on the business cycle both before and during the war. Our findings indicate that price increases do not necessarily lead to economic downturns, even in the face of supply shocks—challenging conventional wisdom.

Keywords: Business Cycle; GDP per capita; War on Ukraine; Food Prices (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L2 M2 M5 O32 O33 O34 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2025-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr and nep-cis
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gmf:papers:2025-02

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