How Employment Framing Affects Trade Preferences: Evidence from Survey Experiments

Marisol Rodríguez Chatruc (), Ernesto Stein (), Razvan Vlaicu () and Victor Zuluaga ()
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Marisol Rodríguez Chatruc: Inter-American Development Bank, Montevideo, Uruguay
Ernesto Stein: School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey
Razvan Vlaicu: Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, D.C., United States of America
Victor Zuluaga: Banco de México, Mexico City, Mexico

No 21, Working Paper Series of the School of Government and Public Transformation from School of Government and Public Transformation, Tecnológico de Monterrey

Abstract: International trade increases aggregate welfare but also creates winners and losers, making it politically contentious. Recent research has established that individuals are more sensitive to anti-trade information about the prospect of employment loss than to pro-trade information about lower prices or greater variety. In this paper, we study how individual attitudes and beliefs change in response to information about employment losses (in import-competing sectors), gains (in export-oriented sectors), and the possibility of compensation for displaced workers. To this end, we conducted a large-scale survey experiment in 18 Latin American countries using nationally representative samples. We find that anti-trade information reduces support for trade even whencompensation is mentioned, while pro-trade messages increase support only when they emphasize job gains. Belief updating about trade’s employment effects seems to be a relevant mechanism. Our findings have important implications on what types of messaging work to increase support for trade: Although compensation is often recommended to build support for trade liberalizations, it can backfire in practice. At the same time, emphasizing employment creation in export sectors offers a more effective strategy to bolster public support for trade policies.

Keywords: International trade; attitudes; employment; survey experiment; Latin America (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 F13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2026-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-exp
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