The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making? AAEA Presidential Address

Thomas Hertel

GTAP Working Papers from Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University

Abstract: Over the past three years, there has been a convergence of interest in the global farm and food system and its contributions to feeding the world’s population as well as to ensuring the environmental sustainability of the planet. The 2007/2008 commodity crisis underscored the vulnerability of the global food system to shocks from extreme weather events, energy and financial markets, as well as government interventions in the form of export bans and other measures designed to avoid domestic adjustment to global scarcity. We have learned that a "perfect storm" in which all these factors coincide can have a devastating impact on the world’s poor, as well as putting considerable pressure on the world’s natural resource base. As we look ahead to the middle of this century, will such commodity price spikes become more commonplace? Will the world’s agricultural resource base be up to the task of meeting the diverse demands being placed on it?

Date: 2010
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 63
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