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The impact of outliers on transitory and permanent components in macroeconomic time series

Olivier Darné and Amelie Charles

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Abstract: In this paper we investigate the effect of the outliers on the decomposition of Nelson-Plosser macroeconomic data set into permanent and transitory components from structural time series models. We show that the outliers can disturb the unobserved-components decomposition, especially the variance of trend and cycle innovations, sometimes dramatically.

Date: 2008
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00765362
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Published in Economics Bulletin, 2008, 3 (60), pp.1-9

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