Situation politico-économique et résultats des élections législatives françaises

Antoine Auberger and Eric Dubois ()
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Eric Dubois: LAEP - LAboratoire d'Economie Publique - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne

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Abstract: The aim of this article is to build and estimate a model that explain and forecast the result of the French legislative elections by department. This model, that constitutes the first attempt for such geographical level, emphasises the role of the economic and political factors in the explanation of the legislative vote. The model seems to be very accurate in forecasting the elections of the past. Furthermore, its behavior for the elections of 2002 was very satisfactory. This model is thus a reliable alternative to the vote intentions polls as an electoral forecasting instrument.

Date: 2003
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00800619
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Published in Revue Economique, 2003, 54 (3), pp.551

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Journal Article: Situation politico-économique et résultats des élections législatives françaises (2003)
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