Politiques monétaires: la marche à suivre

Elena Stancanelli (), Valérie Chauvin, Guillaume Chevillon (), Odile Chagny (), Hélène Baudchon (), Gaël Dupont (), Catherine Mathieu (), Christine Rifflart, Danielle Schweisguth (), Hervé Péléraux (), Mathieu Plane, Xavier Timbeau, Eric Heyer, Matthieu Lemoine, Paola Veroni (), Amel Falah () and Sabine Le Bayon ()
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Elena Stancanelli: THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Guillaume Chevillon: CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Odile Chagny: Centre Etudes & Prospective - Groupe ALPHA
Gaël Dupont: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Danielle Schweisguth: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Paola Veroni: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Amel Falah: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Sabine Le Bayon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: The tightening cycle has at last begun in the United States. Bond markets have joined this movement. The next step for central banks is to handle the huge rise of oil prices without derailing the still fragile recovery. Choosing to support growth rather than unnecessarily combat the temporary pick up of inflation should lead the Federal Reserve to a 125 bp increase of the federal funds rate (to 3%). The ECB should tighten its rate only once, by 25 bp. Counting on a softening of the housing bubble, the Bank of England should interrupt its tightening cycle after two additional moves. No move is expected from the Bank of Japan because the Japanese economy has not yet ended deflation.

Date: 2004-10
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-01218110v1
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2004, 91, pp.163 - 178. ⟨10.3917/reof.091.0163⟩

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Working Paper: Politiques monétaires: la marche à suivre (2004)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01218110

DOI: 10.3917/reof.091.0163

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