Macroeconomic drivers of baseline scenarios in dynamic CGE models: review and guidelines proposal

Jean Fouré, Angel Aguiar Román, Ruben Bibas, Jean Chateau, Shinichiro Fujimori, Julien Lefèvre (), Marian Leimbach, Luis Rey-Los-Santos and Hugo Valin
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Marian Leimbach: PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Luis Rey-Los-Santos: European Commission [Brussels]
Hugo Valin: IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]

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Abstract: For dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, long-term baseline construction is key and depends on the applied methods and the sources of projections considered. For dynamic CGE models, baseline assumptions and base data are both important determinants of results. This paper reviews the assumptions made by 24 modeling teams on baseline macroeconomic drivers, understood as factor accumulation and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. We critically review the various methods, identifying state-of-the-art practices and propose simple guidelines, particularly focusing on consistency between data sources and models, which is intended to help dynamic CGE modelers build their own baselines.

Date: 2020-06-26
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Published in Journal of Global Economic Analysis, 2020, 5 (1), pp.28-62. ⟨10.21642/JGEA.050102AF⟩

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Journal Article: Macroeconomic Drivers of Baseline Scenarios in Dynamic CGE models: Review and Guidelines Proposal (2020)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03128273

DOI: 10.21642/JGEA.050102AF

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