Combien nous coûte l’appréciation de l’euro ?

Elena Stancanelli (), Valerie Chauvin (), Guillaume Chevillon (), Odile Chagny (), Hélène Baudchon (), Gael Dupont (), Catherine Mathieu (), Christine Rifflart (), Danielle Schweisguth (), Hervé Péléraux (), Xavier Timbeau, Eric Heyer, Matthieu Lemoine, Paola Veroni () and Amel Falah ()
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Elena Stancanelli: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - UCP - Université de Cergy Pontoise - Université Paris-Seine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor - Institute for the Study of Labor
Valerie Chauvin: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Guillaume Chevillon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Odile Chagny: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po, Centre Etudes & Prospective - Groupe ALPHA
Hélène Baudchon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Gael Dupont: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Catherine Mathieu: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christine Rifflart: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Danielle Schweisguth: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Paola Veroni: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: Contribution of net exports to growth was markedly negative in 2003 in the euro area (– 0.6 percentage point). These evolutions have been caused — despite the recovery of the second semester — by the persistence of moderate growth rates of world exchanges observed since 2000 and by the euro's appreciation, the effect of which has become negative in 2003. Euro appreciation has reduced the growth rate of the euro area by 0.7 percentage point in 2003. Albeit our forecasts are based on a normalization of the euro/dollar echange rate, lagged effects of the appreciation would reduce the growth rate of the euro area by 0.9 percentage point in 2004. These global results hide nevertheless heterogeneity in the performances of the member countries, resistance of Germany contrasting with the structural weaknesses of the international integration of e.g. France and Italy.

Keywords: Euro zone; Growth; Exchange rate; Zone euro; Croissance; Taux de change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-04
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03458735v1
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2004, 89, pp.205 - 215. ⟨10.3917/reof.089.0205⟩

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Working Paper: Combien nous coûte l’appréciation de l’euro ? (2004)
Working Paper: Combien nous coûte l’appréciation de l’euro ? (2004)
Working Paper: Combien nous coûte l’appréciation de l’euro ? (2004)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03458735

DOI: 10.3917/reof.089.0205

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