France: menaces sur la croissance

Eric Heyer, Marion Cochard (), Matthieu Lemoine, Hervé Péléraux () and Mathieu Plane
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Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: Forecasts on the French economy for 2008 and 2009 are ambivalent. On the one side, the risks we identified 6 months ago (financial crisis, strength of euro and oil prices) did affected French growth in 2007 (+1.9%). This international environment should remain the main constraint in 2008 and 2009. On the other side, business surveys remain optimistic: first, their solid financial situation should allow firms to invest. Second, German competitive disinflation should stop. Moreover, household consumption should remain dynamic, thanks to a slight decrease in the saving rate and the implementation of the tax cuts voted in 2007. All together, French growth should reach 1.9% in 2008 and 2.3% in 2009. But this expansionary fiscal policy should draw the public deficit over the Maastricht criteria of 3% of GDP, which could force the government to implement restrictive measures in 2009.

Keywords: Économie française; Croissance; PIB (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-04
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2008, 105, pp.117 - 179. ⟨10.3917/reof.105.0181⟩

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Working Paper: France: menaces sur la croissance (2008)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03459806

DOI: 10.3917/reof.105.0181

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