Inflation: prix au piège

Christophe Blot (), Marion Cochard (), Matthieu Lemoine, Paola Veroni (), Hervé Péléraux (), Frédéric Reynés (), Christine Rifflart () and Danielle Schweisguth ()
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Christophe Blot: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Paola Veroni: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Christine Rifflart: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Danielle Schweisguth: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: Considering the ongoing process of strong increases in inflation rates, this paper is interested in the risk that price and wage-setting behaviour could add to inflationary pressures. We first come back to the reasons that recently fuelled the rise in prices (oil and food prices) and assess whether those increases may be permanent or transitory. On that point, we expect that tensions and headline inflation rates should moderate. Then, we focus on the risks for second-round effects due to past increases. Inflation models are estimated for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United States and the euro area as a whole where we analyze the elasticity of consumer price inflation to oil prices. It is shown that prices are not fully indexed. Second-round effects should then not materialize.

Keywords: Taux d'inflation; Effet de second tour (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-04
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03459808
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2008, 105, pp.249 - 273. ⟨10.3917/reof.105.0275⟩

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Working Paper: Inflation: prix au piège (2008)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03459808

DOI: 10.3917/reof.105.0275

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