Zone euro: serrez les rangs !

Christophe Blot (), Sabine Le Bayon () and Matthieu Lemoine
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Christophe Blot: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po
Sabine Le Bayon: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

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Abstract: Due to the financial crisis, GDP declined by 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2008. Consumption and investment decreased under lower indebtedness, leading to a severe adjustment on labour markets. Moreover, the recession was amplified by international developments and exports were strongly cut back. This situation is expected to continue in 2009 and GDP would fall by 3.3 %. The return to a positive quarterly growth would only occur from the second quarter of 2010 onwards. But investment would remain in a downward phase and households would still increase their savings, because of wealth effects. GDP would decrease by 0.3% in 2010, contrary to the United States where monetary and fiscal policies have been more reactive and aggressive.

Keywords: Zone euro; Croissance; Économie européenne (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-04
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03461782
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Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2009, 109, pp.171 - 184. ⟨10.3917/reof.109.0171⟩

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Working Paper: Zone euro: serrez les rangs ! (2009)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03461782

DOI: 10.3917/reof.109.0171

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