France: le coût d’outre-Rhin

Guillaume Chevillon, Hervé Péléraux (), Mathieu Plane, Eric Heyer, Marion Cochard () and Matthieu Lemoine
Additional contact information
Hervé Péléraux: OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po

Post-Print from HAL

Abstract: In 2005, France has experienced a low rate of growth (1.4%), which was mainly caused by the negative contribution of the external balance (–1%). But we still believe in a rebound, with growth rates at 2.2% in 2006 and 2.1% in 2007. The upward trend in business surveys that started in early 2005 continues into the beginning of this year. With the depreciation of the euro exchange rate, the position of French export order book has improved. The restored financial situation allows firms to borrow. Combined with the decrease of the unemployment, this boosts internal demand. In 2007, German competitive disinflation will be enforced by a decrease in the social contributions and an increase in the VAT. This non-cooperative policy will be the main cause of the growth slowdown in France next year.

Keywords: Entreprises françaises; Chômage; Commerce extérieur (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006-04
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03462153
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Published in Revue de l'OFCE, 2006, 97, pp.33 - 89. ⟨10.3917/reof.097.89⟩

Downloads: (external link)
https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03462153/document (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: France: le coût d’outre-Rhin (2006)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03462153

DOI: 10.3917/reof.097.89

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Post-Print from HAL
Bibliographic data for series maintained by CCSD ().