Designing Just Transition Pathways: A Methodological Framework to Estimate the Impact of Future Scenarios on Employment in the French Dairy Sector

Pierre-Marie Aubert (), Baptiste Gardin (), Élise Huber (), Michele Schiavo () and Christophe Alliot ()
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Pierre-Marie Aubert: IDDRI - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris
Baptiste Gardin: IDDRI - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris
Élise Huber: IDDRI - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris
Michele Schiavo: IDDRI - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris
Christophe Alliot: BASIC - Bureau d'Analyse Sociétale pour une Information Citoyenne - Bureau d’Analyse Sociétale pour une Information Citoyenne

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Abstract: This paper proposes an innovative framework to describe sustainable transitions of food systems while considering simultaneously socio-economic and environmental issues, in a just transition perspective. This framework (i) describes the structural changes needed for a sustainable transition in food systems; (ii) assess their effects on employment at the farm and processing industry level; (iii) detect the political levers needed to make this transition a just one—that is, preserving jobs and livelihoods for communities. Using the decarbonation pathway for the agricultural sector issued from the French National Low-Carbon Strategy as reference, we developed two scenarios for the French dairy sector which have the same level of climate ambitious, but a different approach to reach the target. Aiming exclusively to achieve a greenhouse gases reduction, the first scenario relies only on supply side measures. This scenario has a negative impact in terms of employment loss at the farm level and in the agri-food sector. In contrast, a multifunctional scenario considering simultaneously climate, biodiversity, health, and employment issues, and playing with policy measures targeting supply, demand and market organisation can maintain jobs in the farm and agri-food sector, contributes to restore the agro-biodiversity and develops food products compatible with healthy nutritional guidelines.

Keywords: dairy value chain; decarbonization; agri-food sector; modelling framework; farm jobs; agri-food jobs; French national low-carbon strategy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-ene and nep-env
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03653089v1
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Published in Agriculture, 2021, 11 (11), pp.1119. ⟨10.3390/agriculture11111119⟩

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03653089

DOI: 10.3390/agriculture11111119

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