Designing the Future of Agri-Food Chains: Comparison of Prospective Analysis Built 40 Years Ago and Today

Romy Lynn Chaib (), Catherine Macombe () and Rallou Thomopoulos ()
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Romy Lynn Chaib: UMR ITAP - Technologies et Méthodes pour les Agricultures de demain - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement
Catherine Macombe: UMR ITAP - Technologies et Méthodes pour les Agricultures de demain - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement
Rallou Thomopoulos: UMR IATE - Ingénierie des Agro-polymères et Technologies Émergentes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier

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Abstract: Prospective methods, in their various forms, have been used to anticipate the possible evolutions of a studied system since the 50's. The so-called "scenario method" introduced by Godet is a French prospective way which provides a formal scenario-building model based on interactions with chosen prospects; it has proven to be efficient in many fields. This method was typically used for the pork value-chain in the 80's, then in 2021, in independent studies. The process itself changed over the years, and so did its application. In this paper we discuss the differences of application of the Godet method in the 80's and today. We then indicate the results obtained by applying the Godet method to the pork-value-chain then and now: we complete the analysis by showing that even though some key determinants remained unchanged, other key determinants are proper to the current value-chain.

Keywords: Prospective methods; Godet method; Comparison of models; Pork value-chain; Scenarios; Key variables (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-04-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03770738v1
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Published in FoodSim 2022 - 12. Biennial FOODSIM Conference, Apr 2022, Ghent, Belgium

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